Ohlson Model Testability: Empirical Tests Findings
This paper analyses the empirical testability of Ohlson Model (OM). The methodology used comprises: (i) exploratory research with regards to the study objective; (ii) bibliography research with regards to the applicable procedures; and (iii) qualitative research with regards to problem approach. Literature research has comprised both origin (dividend discount, assessment of residual income etc) and the model subjacent theory. The linear information dynamics (LID) and the assessment formulae were discussed concerning the model internal consistency, as well as the establishment of the required inputs (parameters and variables). Empirical studies have been analyzed both in terms of their structuring and their achieved results. The study has concluded that: (1) no consensus has yet been achieved over the appropriate way to measure the parameters of persistency; (2) doubts as to the appropriate way of capturing the parameters and , and the variable prevents verification of the effective explanatory capabilities of the Ohlson Model; (3) empirical testability is limited to absences of consistent proxies that may capture persistency and previsibility of the institution’s future income.